Biden's reaction to the Jordanian attack is expected to be robust, but U.S. officials express caution about provoking a broader conflict with Iran.

The US response to the drone attack in Jordan that killed and injured US service members on Sunday is expected to be more powerful than previous American retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, officials told CNN, though the Pentagon and White House are careful not to reveal the administration's plans.

President Joe Biden is under increasing pressure to respond in a way that effectively ends these attacks. Iran-backed terrorists have targeted US military facilities in Iraq and Syria more than 160 times since October, and numerous Republican congressmen have advocated for the US to strike directly within Iran to send a clear message.

The Biden administration's main dilemma now is how to respond to the drone strike, the worst attack on US forces in the region since the bombing at Abbey Gate, which killed 13 US military men in the final days of the Afghanistan withdrawal, without triggering a regional conflict.

In recent months, the US has carried out a number of raids against Iranian proxies' weapons caches in Syria and Iraq. To date, none of those strikes has deterred the terrorists, whose 165 attacks have injured over 120 US service men in the region since October.

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling stated that the killings of US service members "certainly crossed the president's red line," and officials and experts anticipate a more robust response that is not limited to a single country or day. However, officials have suggested that the US is unlikely to strike within Iran.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the Middle East's atmosphere is as perilous as it has been "since at least 1973, and arguably even before that."

Blinken further stated that the US response "could be multileveled, come in stages, and be sustained over time."

The Biden administration may opt to strike extremist groups again in Iraq, Syria, or both countries, as well as the commanders of regional militias. In at least one example in early January, the US targeted a top member of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian proxy group that has assaulted US troops. Officials also mentioned the possibility of an aggressive cyberattack.

A US official stated that the US is being cautious not to reveal too much about the origin of the drone or which militants fired it in order to maintain an element of surprise when the US replies. US sources have only stated that the Iranian proxy group Kataib Hezbollah appeared to have backed the strike.

"We're not taking anything off the table," a US defense official told CNN.

'We do not wish a war with Iran.'

Still, bombing Iran is one of the least likely alternatives at this time, according to officials. Biden officials reiterated on Monday that the US does not want to go to war with Iran, which would be the most likely conclusion of a US strike within Iran's borders.

"We do not want a conflict with Iran. "We're not looking for a larger conflict in the Middle East," John Kirby, the National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, told CNN Monday. "In fact, every action the president has taken has been designed to de-escalate, to try to bring the tensions down."

While the United States holds Iran ultimately responsible for the attacks due to Tehran's financial and military support for its proxy groups, multiple sources told CNN that there is no evidence that Iran explicitly directed the deadly attack on Sunday or intended it as a deliberate escalation against the US.

The Iranian government has likewise denied its involvement.

"I don't think this was intended as an escalation," a US official stated. "It is the same type of attack they've done 163 times before and on 164 they get lucky."

The attack bore many of the hallmarks of the previous 160-plus strikes by Iran-backed militants, officials said, with the exception that it successfully hit a housing container at the US base, known as Tower 22, early on Sunday, while service members were still in their beds and had little time to evacuate.

The drone also flew low, possibly allowing it to avoid the base's air defenses, and approached the base at the same time as an American drone returning from a mission. Officials believe this resulted in confusion and may have delayed a response.

"We know these groups are supported by Iran, so they have their fingerprints on this, but I can't tell you who directed it," Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, said during a briefing Monday.

However, if the US attempts to de-escalate by launching proportionate and limited retaliatory strikes, Iran and its proxies may interpret this as weakness, according to Jon Alterman, Middle East Program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"If everything is deliberate and proportionate, it creates an incentive for people to go right up to the red line and to make sure they know exactly where that red line is," Alterman was quoted as saying by CNN.

Iran has spent years investing in its regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and armed organizations in Iraq and Syria. Tehran has provided money, arms, training, and supplies to these proxies, dubbed as the "axis of resistance," as it strives to expand its influence in the Middle East and compel the United States to withdraw from the region.

"In the last three months, Iran has benefited profoundly from its years of investment in the axis of resistance," he said. After the Israel-Hamas war began, Tehran witnessed a wave of anti-US and anti-Israel protests across the Middle East. Iran has grown closer to Russia and China, while Iraqi leaders have recently began to speak out more strongly against the US military presence in the nation.

These are Iran's victory measures.

"Every message you see talks about the fear of escalation from the administration," said a former senior military officer who has closely monitored regional developments. "We have managed to deter ourselves here.


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